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New Frontier Data Study Foresees U.S. Cannabis Consumer Demographic Surging to 71 Million by 2030

May 27, 2022 08:00 am ET
New Frontier Data Study Foresees U.S. Cannabis Consumer Demographic Surging to 71 Million by 2030

If there’s anything that moves faster than a discount bucket of cannabis at a dispensary, it’s the cannabis market’s northerly journey! Cannabis represents one of the fastest-growing industries on the planet, with the global market poised to inflate at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.5% by the year 2027.

The U.S. market alone represents a significant share of the worldwide market and, taking into account new projections published by New Frontier Data, U.S. legal cannabis sales are on track to surpass $57 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 14%.

Published as part of the data firm’s annual market update—which was carried out alongside FTI Consulting—the “2022 U.S. Cannabis Report: Industry Projections & Trends” indicates that the projected figure for 2013 could top $71 billion if the 18 U.S. states that are considering legalization proceed to enact such laws.

Based on the newly published report, increasing consumer demand and sweeping legalization are two primary factors that are acting as a catalyst for market growth. On top of this, the researchers noted a significant increase in the size of the adult consumer demographic—the aftereffects of the emerging societal recognition of cannabis’ remedial qualities.

“The seismic shift in public perception around cannabis is fueled in part by the growing exposure that Americans have through legal, regulated markets,” said the CEO of New Frontier Data, Gary Allen. “Even in the absence of a federal framework, the resilience and growth potential of a determined industry is laying the foundation for a safe and sustainable consumer category.”

Other Important Takeaways From the Report

The projected $72 million valuation that New Frontier Data analysts have pinned on the U.S. cannabis industry isn’t the only notable outcome from their latest report. According to their findings, the number of U.S. cannabis consumers could climb from the 47 million recorded in 2020 to 71 million by the year 2030 based on ever-growing self-reported usage rates.

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The team also found that U.S. medical cannabis markets are continuously swelling, with as many as 5.7 million people expected to register under state-legal patient programs by the year 2030. This works out at 1.6% of the adult population. Notwithstanding the promising outlook for the U.S. legal cannabis market, New Frontier’s researchers noted that the forthcoming expectations for federal reform are bleak. 

On the other hand, there’s also a segment in the 2022 U.S. Cannabis Report suggesting that a limited legislative measure—such as marijuana banking reform—could gain enough momentum to pass following the success of the legislative 2022 midterm elections.

In fact, recent reports indicate that cannabis lobbyists across the nation are encouraging lawmakers to get a cannabis reform bill sent to President Biden’s desk before the looming November elections.

Facts About Cannabis Use Disorder

Cannabis consumption is rising among both males and females, various age groups, and pregnant women. On a global scale, the United Nations projects that 158.8 million people—more than 3.8% of the planet’s population—consume cannabis regularly. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) claims that cannabis is the most commonly used federally illegal drug in the U.S., with 18% of Americans (48.2 million people) using the plant at least once during the year 2019. 

With the rising usage rates, some experts worry about an increase in cannabis use disorder (CUD). Though rare, some heavy users will develop a dependence on cannabis. It should be noted that cannabis does not have physically addictive properties, but it is possible to develop a dependence on the pleasurable high one feels after consuming cannabis. It should also be noted that CUD differs from frequent cannabis use.

According to Psycom.net, the following signs can point to a case of CUD: “There is a persistent desire or unsuccessful efforts to cut down or control cannabis use,” “A great deal of time is spent in activities necessary to obtain cannabis, use cannabis or recover from its effects,” and “Important social, occupational or recreational activities are given up or reduced because of cannabis use.” 

A range of pharmacokinetic alterations occur inside the body (including changes in drug absorption, distribution, excretion, and metabolization) after prolonged cannabis use, as well as changes to the drug’s interaction with target cells, better known as “pharmacodynamic changes.” Because of this, consumers often increase their dosage to ensure they experience a desirable effect.

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